Brexit

Worries about China’s slowing economy spread across Asian markets on Monday with U.S. stock futures turning down and Chinese shares in the red as concerns about U.S. corporate earnings and global growth continued to hit sentiment. Amidst risk-aversion, the US dollar traded well bid across the board, lending some support to the USDJPY recovery, as the Yen markets cheer upbeat Japanese retail trade data. Today is relatively quiet in terms of scheduled data releases in an otherwise busy week. We will get US PCE core, where we expect 1.90% y/y – a number that will fit nicely with the Fed’s narrative of hiking in December.

Heading into a new week, the EUR calendar for Monday remains data-light, with nothing of relevance, except for the UK mortgage approvals and CBI Distributive trade survey. The UK Annual Budget report will be published by the UK Chancellor Hammond, who will deliver the budget speech around 12:30 GMT. Also, the European Commission’s Eurozone economic growth forecasts report will be released by 1000 GMT, which could offer some incentives to the EUR traders. The North American session headlines the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (YoY) for the month of September, which is seen arriving at 2%. The FOMC member Evans speech is due at 13:45 GMT, followed by the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index at 1430 GMT.