Trade deal developments between the US and China have been important market drivers this week, with the most noteworthy being Saturday’s truce and yesterday’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO. The White House has said that Trump was not aware of the arrest, which took place on Saturday, ahead of the dinner with Jinping. Today, CFO Meng Wanzhou will face a bail hearing. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities demanded her release.
Today, we have a numbers of important data releases on both sides of the Atlantic, starting with the US job reports for November, where we estimate non-farm payrolls rose around the current trend of 190,000. More importantly, we expect that average hourly earnings rose +0.3% m/m due to a continued tighter labour market. On the euro side, the euro area Q3 wage growth numbers are due. The numbers are of special interest, as positive numbers are likely to boost the ECB’s confidence in its inflation outlook at next week’s important general council meeting.
The so-called OPEC+ is scheduled to meet today. The meeting proves even more important now as the original OPEC meeting yesterday failed to deliver any final deal on production cuts. A press conference is tentatively scheduled for 13:00 CET, but history shows this could well be postponed if negotiations prove difficult. In German politics, the CDU is starting its party congress to find a replacement for Angela Merkel as party leader today. A vote come in the late afternoon (after 15:00 CET) but the agenda is not yet finalised.