Risk sentiment turned at the start of a brand-new week, amid US-Mexico trade progress and increased bets of a Fed rate cut, as reflected by the risk-on rally in the Asian equities. However, the optimism soon faded somewhat after the Chinese trade data showed the country’s imports slumped the most in nearly three months, leading to a bigger-than-expected expansion in the trade surplus. The poor data re-ignited the China slowdown fears.
USD/JPY was boosted by better risk sentiment and flirted with daily tops near 108.60 region, having witnessed a bullish opening gap on positive trade news. On the other hand, both, EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded on the back foot amid a broad-based US dollar recovery.
The focus in today’s EUR macro calendar will be on a slew of fresh UK economic releases, including the monthly GDP, trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production data, all of which will be reported at 08:30 GMT. At the same time, markets will look forward to the Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence data for some trading impetus on the Euro, as the German markets are closed today in observance of Whit Monday.
The NA session remains data-sparse, with US JOLTS job openings data release at 14:00 GMT. The speech by the Bank of England board member Saunders at 17:00 GMT will also grab some attention.
Oil prices rose on Monday after Saudi Arabia said producer club OPEC and Russia should restrict supplies to current levels, while Washington’s withdrawal of a tariff threat against Mexico removed a cloud over the global economy. However, traders said concerns about the health of the global economy and the impact on fuel demand were still weighing on oil market sentiment.
Gold fell on Monday as the risk sentiment changed. With the threat of Mexico tariffs put on ice for now, riskier assets may shine temporarily as we start the week. However, global trade tensions aren’t going to disappear so that is something that will still weigh on markets in the medium-term, and support Gold’s safe-haven status.