Asian equity markets rose along with the oil price overnight, but overall risk sentiment remains fragile amid a slowdown in the global manufacturing sector, which was further confirmed in euro area industrial production figures published yesterday. Furthermore, unfinished political business is keeping markets anxious. Regarding the unfinished political business, rumours and speculation before the vote on UK Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal suggests that she is facing an uphill battle. Market and politicians are already turning attention to the road after an expected loss today, e.g. there is speculation about a potential extension of article 50 to give the UK more time to pass through the Brexit deal.
Coming up today, the Brexit vote in the House of Commons has finally arrived (voting starts at 20:00 CET). A defeat of PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal is widely expected, so markets will probably not react to the defeat itself but to the size of the defeat. A narrow defeat means that May might be able to get it through at a later stage, but a big defeat means we are in uncharted territory. In the US Empire PMI manufacturing for January is due. Regional PMIs are usually no major market movers, but this time they will receive some attention for indications where ISM manufacturing is heading after the large fall in December. Fed’s Kashkari, George and Kaplan are also scheduled to speak later today kicking off a busy week of Fed speakers, while ECB President Draghi is due to speak at the European Parliament in the afternoon.